A novel flood risk model for The Netherlands

Kennisbank •
dr. Robin Nicolai, Arno Gabriël MSc, Radek Solnicky MSc, prof. dr. ir. Bas Kolen

Even though significant parts of the Netherlands are susceptible to flooding or even lie below sea level, it is one of the safest deltas globally due to an extensive system of flood defenses.

A novel flood risk model for The Netherlands

As of now, about two-thirds of levees comply with the Dutch Water Act. Despite the high level of protection against flood in The Netherlands, the financial sector requires adequate means to assess and quantify the remnant flood risk.


A probabilistic catastrophe model – if well designed - provides reliable flood risk insights on both local and national level that come forward to the needs of (re-)insurers, brokers and banks alike. Applications of such a model extend to CSRD/EU Taxonomy reporting, EIOPA regulatory standards, and financial stability stress-testing, etc. Aon Impact Forecasting and HKV Consultants have developed and released a catastrophe model to assess flood risk across the Netherlands. The model has been approved by the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU Amsterdam. It has already been deployed for most of the applications outlined above. In this article we describe the major challenges faced and design choices made during the development of this model.


Lees dit artikel verder onder Download.