Modelling the Financial Impact of Flood Risk

Kennisbank •
Vincent de Quelerij, Sander van Eekelen, Juliska Tel MSc

This article describes how to model the financial impact of flood risk for specific Dutch portfolios,which is insufficiently covered by the commonly used global flood models as these models often ignore specific flood risk characteristics within the Netherlands.

Modelling the Financial Impact of Flood Risk

First, we describe the available Dutch flood risk data. Then we show how we can link these to individual addresses. Subsequently, we show how this can be combined in impact per flooding scenario on a portfolio level. Finally, this is translated to a financial impact for either a portfolio or an individual address. Every region in the world has its own specific climate risk profile. For the Netherlands, one of the largest climate risks is flooding, as considerable parts of the nation lie below sea level and several major European rivers run through it and flow out to sea. In the past, flood was not insured in the Netherlands as the state provided for appropriate protection. However, despite a sophisticated water management system, events in Limburg and the IJssel in 2021 and 2023 prove that nevertheless the exposure exists and show the relevance of insuring and modeling such flood risks. Sophisticated opensource models and data exist to assess the risks of flooding, but no tools exist that can assess the associated financial impact for the Netherlands.


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