I, along with international colleagues Yair Babad and Sam Gutterman, recently published a paper introducing actuaries to the topic of fertility. The paper described how to analyse fertility rates demographically and considered the causes and consequences of changes in fertility.
In fertility analysis, the crude birth rate (CBR), the number of births per 1,000 population, plays a similar role to the crude death rate, the number of deaths per 1,000 population, in mortality analysis and suffers from similar drawbacks. The CBR is not just affected by changes in underlying fertility but also by changes in the demographic profile of the population, such as the age and sex distribution. A better measure, although still not perfect, is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of live births a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as live births per woman. It is usually built up from fertility rates at single years of age or for 5-year age groups.
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